Which Sector Will Bounce Back First?

If every selloff presents a unique buying opportunity, then where – oh, where – is this one?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost more than 800 points, or 7.6%, since its Jan. 19 close, and nearly every sector has taken a deep hit. But if you’re waiting for a broad market rebound, you could be waiting a while. With little economic data of significance due out over the next few days and few Dow components yet to release fourth-quarter earnings, there aren't many signs pointing to a Dow resurgence.

So we asked analysts which industry could be poised for a rebound – or, at the very least, a quick bump.  One name that came up was energy.

Granted, it didn’t look particularly good for energy on Monday, with the NYSE Energy Index and Philadelphia Oil Services Sector index each losing 0.9%, and key names like Chevron (CVX), Chesapeake Energy (CHK), PetroChina (PTR), and Conoco Phillips (COP) dropping more 1% to 2%. And last week wasn’t much better. “Oil prices fell hard on the stronger dollar, but mainly the falling euro and it was a late rally in stocks here in the United States that probably saved oil from a total breakdown,” Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for the futures brokerage PFG Best, wrote Monday.

But analysts say there may be reason for upside – or at least sustained prices -- in the near term. According to data from the Trade Idea Monitor, which tracks the ideas of more than 4,300 professionals at institutional brokerage firms, the long sentiment for energy climbed 4.3 points Monday to a reading of 60.2, making it the most bullish sector looking out one to three days. (Any reading over 50 indicates bullishness.)

Of course, any investment can look peachy over a short enough period. And some market watchers have tempered their expectations for energy in the longer term. But in the interest of looking for some near-term relief, SmartMoney surveyed some of the factors driving investors’ interest in energy right now.

The latest storm in the Northeast was a chilly reminder to some traders that temperatures can still plunge – and demand for home heating commodities can still rise.

Winter storms clearly help the natural gas market, says Newsom. And buying in front of spring and summer might also be starting to help other markets already.

"We’ve seen the [crude oil] contango continue to weaken a bit, which tells me we’re starting to see some of the seasonal commercial buying that comes in mid-February -- this is in advance of what they’re predicting to be demand for spring and summer," says Darin Newsom, senior analyst with Telvent DTN. "But if overall demand is going to come down again, I think the seasonal strength from the commercial side is going to be limited."

On Monday, Iran announced plans to begin producing higher enriched uranium, adding concerns among nuclear watchdogs that the country is inching toward a viable nuclear bomb. Although a weapon could be years away, the geo-political tension stemming from the world’s fourth-largest oil producer could have a positive effect on energy prices in the near term. Flynn lists geo-political events, namely in the Persian Gulf, among those factors that could keep the energy sector afloat.

The biggest short-term driver among energy stocks could be that selling at the end of January and early February may have led to the idea that oil has been oversold, says Newsom. “Longer term, there are more reasons to be bearish than bullish, but we could have a short term rally based on the dollar -- it was overbought when commodities were oversold.”

The Trade Idea Monitor Data could suggest that at least a few brokerages are mulling buying on that perceived weakness.

Of course, the idea of “oversold” might be relative in the big picture, Flynn says. "We are in an overbought market and when we put politics to the side, the bulls will lose their steam and we should see lower prices."